The Third-Worlding of America
The United States is on the verge of an existential crisis that will deliver either a definitive victory or a decisive defeat for Trump. It’s a crisis that could easily spill over into Europe
The United States stands at an inflection point that will define the trajectory of American democracy—and potentially democratic institutions worldwide. As Trump prepares to celebrate his birthday with a military parade in the capital — in a style more befitting Mugabe’s Zimbabwe than the United States — the democratic foundations of the country are crumbling.
European observers might view these developments with detached curiosity, but the authoritarian playbook being deployed in America bears striking similarities to the ambitions long voiced by populist movements across Europe—only now enacted at full scale. The collapse of democratic norms in America could easily metastasize to any Western democracy, with Italy—given its vulnerability to disinformation and populist narratives—particularly at risk.
A Manufactured Emergency
It’s worth recapping a few essential points to connect the dots and offer a lens through which to read the American crisis—one that many European media outlets still tend to downplay or misinterpret.
1. The violence in Los Angeles was deliberately manufactured by the Trump administration. Before ICE arrived, the city was peaceful. The raids were designed to provoke protests, which could then be met with violent repression. Californian citizens are demanding the rule of law. They don’t want members of their communities being abducted by masked, heavily armed agents and deported to unknown — often extrajudicial — detention sites, without charges or due process.
2. The immigration enforcement operations themselves represent a significant departure from previous practices. Raids have occurred at Home Depot stores targeting day laborers, garment factories, and warehouses—locations where people work, not hide. These operations appear designed not to enforce immigration law, but to create maximum social disruption and media attention.
3. The targeting extends well beyond individuals without legal status. “Public safety” is irrelevant: those deported are not charged with any crimes. Arrests often occur in front of family members — and sometimes include them. These are not the “criminals” evoked in Trump’s violent rhetoric, but peaceful, working individuals who pose no threat to public safety.
4. Reports indicate that these operations have swept up lawful permanent residents and, in some documented cases, even U.S. citizens — caught in dragnet raids that prioritize speed over accuracy. The crude and indiscriminate nature of these actions — where appearance and ethnicity seem to play a decisive role — lays bare their real purpose: to instill fear and provoke confrontation.
5. The violent repression of protests is carefully designed to intimidate peaceful citizens while encouraging the presence of demonstrators more accustomed to confrontation — those less afraid of armed force. This triggers a process of self-selection that radicalizes protests, providing the presidency with a pretext for exceptional measures and a concentration of power.
6. The deployment of National Guard troops represents the first time in decades that a president has sent armed forces into a U.S. state against the will of local authorities. The last comparable incident occurred in the 1960s, when federal troops were deployed to protect civil rights demonstrators—not to suppress them.
7. Trump is fabricating a surreal narrative that MAGA supporters — and much of the Italian public — swallow without question. According to this version of events, California’s cities — among the wealthiest and most educated in the U.S. — are being invaded by foreign militias oppressing defenseless white citizens. Kristi Noem, head of the Department of Homeland Security, has described Los Angeles as “a city of criminals.”
8. Authoritarian regimes use precisely this kind of escalation strategy: they manufacture crises, provoke outrage, and exploit public reactions to justify repression. The goal is not to restore order, but to stage chaos — and then claim that civil liberties must be suspended, and extraordinary powers granted, to control it. It’s the textbook excuse for concentrating power in the hands of the autocrat and his inner circle.
9. Beyond the visible drama of protests and parades lies a more subtle but equally dangerous development: the weaponization of federal funding. The administration has repeatedly threatened to withhold federal resources from states, cities, and institutions that challenge its policies. This represents perhaps the clearest signal of authoritarian drift—public funds, collected from all citizens, are now treated as the personal treasury of the ruler and his allies.
This financial coercion extends to universities, research institutions, and civil society organizations. Any entity that maintains independence or expresses criticism faces potential economic strangulation. The message is clear: conform or face financial ruin.
10. The current trajectory suggests several likely developments:
Escalation disguised as “restoration of order”: Each round of repression will be justified as necessary to restore peace, even as government actions deliberately provoke further unrest.
Expansion of emergency powers: Temporary measures will become permanent, with each crisis justifying broader executive authority.
Targeting of civil society: Journalists, protest organizers, and civil rights advocates will face increasing legal and extralegal pressure.
Redefinition of dissent: Legitimate political opposition will be increasingly characterized as terrorism or sedition.
Spectacle and Symbolism
The timing of these events may be not coincidental. Trump has scheduled a massive military parade for June 14—simultaneously the Army's 250th anniversary and his 79th birthday—featuring 6,600 soldiers, 150 vehicles, and 50 aircraft. This spectacle, more reminiscent of authoritarian regimes than American democratic traditions, serves multiple purposes.
First, it normalizes the presence of military forces in civilian spaces. Second, it personalizes state power around the figure of the leader. Third, it sends an unmistakable message about who controls the instruments of force. The parade transforms the military from a institution serving the nation into a prop for personal aggrandizement.
A moment of decision for Europe
What happens in America does not stay in America. The techniques being refined in Los Angeles and Washington will be studied and adapted by authoritarian movements worldwide. The collapse of American democratic norms removes a crucial backstop against global democratic recession.
European democracies face their own vulnerabilities: polarized electorates, weakened institutions, and information systems under constant attack. The American model—once a beacon of democratic resilience—now serves as a cautionary tale about how quickly established norms can crumble.
We are witnessing what historians may mark as a decisive moment in the decline of the liberal democratic order. The United States, long the guarantor of global democratic stability, is actively exporting authoritarian tactics rather than democratic values.
The choice facing democracies is stark: confront the systematic poisoning of public discourse and institutional norms, or passively accept the slow-motion collapse of democratic governance. The latter path leads not to stability, but to the kind of "managed democracy" we see in Hungary, Russia, and other pseudo-democratic states.
The events in Los Angeles are not merely an American domestic crisis—they represent a stress test for democratic institutions everywhere. How we respond will determine whether democracy survives the 21st century or becomes another historical curiosity, remembered fondly but no longer practiced.
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If you read Italian, I also invite you to explore the original version of this blog.